Japan Upper House Election - No Surprise at rise of Sanseito?
Sanseito features some parallels with Reform UK
On July 20th, 2025, Japan held its House of Councillors Election, with voting concluding at 20:00 Tokyo time.
Only half of the seats are contested every three years in this election, as part of Japan’s Upper House, which has a total of 248 seats. This is a relatively smaller chamber compared to the UK’s House of Lords, which has over 800 members.
This election was significant and historic for several reasons.
Firstly, key issues debated before the election included inflation (particularly the soaring cost of rice), social welfare, calls for lower VAT and taxes, and demographic decline. The latter topic sparked debates surrounding immigration policies in Japan.
The election also served as a test for Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru’s ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), who took office in late 2024. Since then, Prime Minister Ishiba has faced three challenging elections — the House of Representatives election in October 2024, recent local elections in Tokyo, and now the Upper House election.
The LDP-Komeito coalition lost its majority in the upper house, prompting some analysts to suggest that PM Ishiba may face calls to resign. However, the Prime Minister has insisted he will remain in office, especially given Japan’s ongoing negotiations with the USA over tariffs. Other commentators argue that the setback isn't too severe: the coalition is only a few votes short of a majority and can potentially rely on smaller parties to secure the necessary votes.
One of the most discussed stories is the rise of Sanseito, a relatively obscure party that gained attention during the COVID-19 pandemic under the leadership of Kamiya Sohei, a one time English teacher and now in his political ascendency. Some media outlets have labelled Sanseito as populist or far-right, though its specific policies remain to be seen. The party secured 14 new seats, bringing its total to 15, still a small fraction of the 248 seats in the Upper House.
Notably, Sanseito has proposed restricting the percentage of foreign residents in Japanese municipalities to 5%. While at this stage it’s unlikely the party will join a coalition to govern, it could influence public debate, similar to the role that Reform UK plays in the UK, which, despite having only four MPs, exerts outsized influence on media, social discourse, and policy debates, especially when it comes to immigration.
Regarding foreign policy, there are many open questions. Will Japan adopt a more assertive defence and security posture, potentially increasing military spending? How will its relations with the USA, China, and the Koreas evolve? Interestingly, Russia has been mentioned in recent discussions, especially in connection with the rise of Sanseito, likely due to regional security concerns.
In the short term, these developments probably won’t significantly alter the current status quo for the UK. However, Japan’s approach to tourism, foreign visitors, students, scholarships and long-term residents may shift as patriotic sentiment like “Japan First” continue to influence policy.